Donald Trump’s return to the White House is expected to bring sweeping changes to US foreign policy, impacting relations with allies and adversaries alike. His “America First” stance—focused on non-interventionism and trade protectionism—signals a potential redirection of Washington’s approach during turbulent times across Ukraine, the Middle East, and China.
Middle East Strategy: Israel, Gaza, and Iran
Trump has committed to achieving “peace” in the Middle East, a region facing escalating conflicts, especially between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. He insists that, had he been in power, his strict policy on Iran—which supports Hamas—would have deterred the attack on Israel. Trump’s previous policies were decidedly pro-Israel, naming Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocating the US embassy there, energising his evangelical voter base.
Under Trump, the historic “Abraham Accords” led Arab countries to recognise Israel without pressing for a Palestinian state, leaving the Palestinians diplomatically isolated. While Trump has expressed a desire to end the Gaza conflict, balancing his support for Israel and his broader peace goals may prove challenging.
Ukraine, Russia, and NATO Relations
Trump has pledged a quick resolution to the Ukraine-Russia war, asserting he could negotiate peace “in a day.” His past statements suggest he may encourage Ukraine to enter negotiations, perhaps delaying its NATO aspirations as an enticement for Russia. His former advisers have indicated this approach, though opponents claim it risks abandoning Ukraine and destabilising Europe.
Trump’s relationship with NATO has sparked uncertainty among allies. Known for his criticism of the alliance, Trump has accused European members of over-relying on US military support. Although it remains unclear if he would withdraw from NATO, his rhetoric has alarmed NATO leaders, who now question the alliance’s future role and strength.
China: Trade and Strategic Competition
China’s relationship with the US remains one of the most critical issues Trump is likely to address, with implications for both security and trade. During his last term, he designated China as a “strategic competitor” and imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, triggering retaliatory tariffs and trade tension. Despite this, Biden retained many of Trump’s tariffs, sustaining a firm stance on China.
Trump’s position on Taiwan is also closely watched. He has recently argued he could avoid military conflict with China over Taiwan by leveraging severe tariffs. This combative approach might reinforce his image as a strategic counterweight to President Xi Jinping.
In summary, Trump’s potential second term promises notable shifts in US foreign policy, with “America First” again at the forefront. His strategies could reshape the global landscape, affecting alliances, trade agreements, and diplomatic dynamics across key regions.
