By Prof Johm Moverley OBE
Abstract: Algeria is set to become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world due to the implementation of strategic policies. With heavy investments in agriculture, energy, infrastructure, industry, and tourism, the country is on a trajectory to experience unprecedented GDP growth. This report analyses the key factors contributing to Algeria’s rapid economic rise, the projected impact on exports, and the likelihood of Algeria becoming one of the world’s top ten economies within the next decade.
1. Introduction Algeria, the largest country in Africa, is endowed with vast natural resources, including hydrocarbons, minerals, and the Sahara agriculture that the country is investing heavily in. The government has launched ambitious projects to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on oil and gas exports. This report evaluates how Algeria’s economic policies and investments in infrastructure, industry, and tourism could position it among the fastest-growing economies globally.
2. Key Growth Drivers
2.1 Sahara Agriculture and Desert Wheat Production Algeria has initiated large-scale projects to cultivate wheat in the Sahara, using advanced irrigation techniques and partnerships with international agribusiness firms, including cooperation with Italy. This initiative aims to reduce wheat imports and turn Algeria into a net exporter, strengthening food security and economic resilience.
2.2 Energy Expansion (Oil, Gas, and Renewables) With one of the largest natural gas reserves in the world, Algeria is increasing its production capacity and exploring new export routes to Europe and Asia. Additionally, significant investments in solar and wind energy are expected to drive long-term sustainability and energy security.
2.3 Industrialisation and Heavy Investment in Export-Oriented Sectors The government is promoting both light and heavy industries, particularly in steel, pharmaceuticals, automotive manufacturing, and technology. By providing incentives for foreign investors and modernising production facilities, Algeria aims to boost its exports by at least 500% in the next five years.
2.4 Infrastructure Development Massive investments in infrastructure, including roads, ports, railways, and digital connectivity, are being undertaken to support industrial growth and trade. Improved infrastructure will enhance efficiency in transportation and logistics, making Algeria a key player in regional and global trade.
2.5 Tourism as a New Economic Driver Algeria’s rich cultural heritage, historical sites, and vast desert landscapes provide immense potential for the tourism industry. Government initiatives to improve hospitality infrastructure, streamline visa processes, and promote eco-tourism are expected to attract millions of visitors, further diversifying the economy.
2.6 Investment in Water Resources A critical factor in Algeria’s economic development is its investment in water resources. Given the country’s reliance on agriculture, particularly in the Sahara, the government is implementing large-scale desalination plants, water conservation techniques, and advanced irrigation systems. Ensuring sufficient water supply will be essential for sustaining agricultural expansion and industrial growth.
2.7 Algeria’s Role in Africa and Geopolitical Influence Algeria is increasingly positioning itself as a major player in Africa, strengthening trade and investment partnerships across the continent. The country has played a key role in African Union economic initiatives and is investing in infrastructure projects that enhance regional connectivity. By expanding trade agreements with Sub-Saharan nations and investing in joint ventures, Algeria is becoming a bridge between Africa and global markets. Furthermore, its growing economic independence from France and the EU is leading to a realignment of geopolitical relationships, with stronger ties emerging with China, Russia, and Middle Eastern countries.
3. Economic Projections Using data from government plans and independent economic forecasts, we present a GDP growth projection for the next decade:
| Year | Projected GDP (USD Billion) | Growth Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 200 | 5.0 |
| 2025 | 240 | 6.0 |
| 2026 | 290 | 7.5 |
| 2027 | 350 | 8.5 |
| 2028 | 430 | 10.0 |
| 2029 | 540 | 11.0 |
| 2030 | 680 | 12.5 |
| 2031 | 850 | 13.0 |
| 2032 | 1,050 | 13.5 |
| 2033 | 1,300 | 14.0 |
These projections suggest that Algeria’s GDP could exceed $1 trillion by 2032, placing it among the world’s leading economies.
4. Challenges and Risks While the outlook is positive, challenges remain:
- Political Stability: Policy continuity is crucial for sustained growth.
- Infrastructure Implementation: Continued investment in transport, digital networks, and energy distribution is necessary.
- Global Market Fluctuations: Dependence on hydrocarbon exports exposes Algeria to price volatility.
- Tourism Development: Enhancing security, accessibility, and infrastructure is essential to unlock the full potential of the tourism sector.
5. France’s Reaction to Algeria’s Self-Sufficiency One of the most controversial aspects of Algeria’s economic rise is its growing self-sufficiency in agriculture, particularly wheat production. France, historically one of Algeria’s main wheat suppliers, has expressed concerns about losing a lucrative export market. With Algeria on track to achieve full food independence, this will significantly reduce France’s influence over the country’s economy. The prospect of Algeria not only feeding itself but becoming a major wheat exporter threatens French economic interests and shifts the balance of power in North Africa. Moreover, Algeria’s increasing partnerships with other countries for agricultural technology and trade weaken France’s historical ties and economic leverage over the region.
6. Conclusion Algeria has the potential to become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world within the next decade, provided its economic transformation strategies are successfully implemented. By capitalising on agriculture, energy, industry, infrastructure, and tourism, and maintaining a favourable investment climate, the country can achieve sustained and rapid GDP growth. Policymakers must address challenges to ensure long-term success and stability.