Once a dominant player in the American retail landscape, Target is facing mounting pressure as Walmart and Kroger pull ahead in both value and volume. While Target maintains a loyal customer base and strong brand identity, it is increasingly being squeezed between Walmart’s aggressive pricing and Kroger’s grocery dominance.
According to recent retail analysis, Target’s market share in food and household essentials has stagnated, while Walmart continues to strengthen its grip on lower-income consumers through bulk pricing, private-label expansion, and aggressive online promotions. Meanwhile, Kroger’s deep roots in grocery, along with its investment in digital delivery and loyalty platforms, have kept it resilient in the face of inflation and shifting consumer behaviours.
🛒 Where Target Is Falling Behind
Target’s business model has long relied on combining trend-forward merchandise with value. But in 2024 and early 2025, that formula has shown strain. Shoppers are cutting back on discretionary spending, the very category where Target excels — such as fashion, home décor, and non-essential items. Its “cheap-chic” appeal, once a strength, now struggles to compete with Walmart’s price edge and Kroger’s food-first strategy.
“Target simply isn’t winning where it matters most right now — food and essentials,” says retail analyst Dana Ellis. “Consumers want immediate value, and Walmart is offering that in bulk, while Kroger is locking in grocery shoppers week after week.”
📉 The Numbers Tell the Story
-
Walmart grew its U.S. grocery revenue by 6.3% in Q1 2025, according to industry reports.
-
Kroger expanded its digital sales by 11%, backed by personalisation tools and robust fulfilment networks.
-
Target, in contrast, saw a decline in discretionary sales, and only marginal growth in essentials, below inflation levels.
💡 What Target Needs to Do
To regain momentum, Target may need to double down on value pricing, expand its food offerings, and modernise its loyalty programme. Additionally, further investment in AI-driven shelf management and fulfilment could help streamline operations.
While Target still holds strong appeal among suburban families and millennials, the competitive retail climate demands adaptability. Without aggressive repositioning, it risks slipping from the top tier of American retail — a spot it once held with ease.