By Riad Beladi
Executive Summary: Algeria, located on North Africa’s Mediterranean coast, exhibited a robust economic performance in 2023 with a notable increase in its exports. The country’s total exports amounted to $64.4 billion, reflecting a significant uptrend of 49.6% compared to 2018 and a remarkable 66.6% increase year-over-year from 2023.
Top Trading Partners: Major trading partners for Algeria include Italy (16%), France (12.6%), Spain (11.7%), and the United States (9.9%), collectively constituting 81.7% of the country’s total exports. Geographically, 58.2% of Algeria’s exports go to European countries, 17.1% to Asia, and 11.8% to North America.
Top Export Categories: Algeria’s top 10 export categories, led by mineral fuels including oil at 90.2%, contribute to 99.1% of the overall export value. Notably, articles made from iron or steel showed the highest growth of 987.2%, while sugar and sugar confectionery experienced a severe decline of -73.5%.
Key Export Products: The top 5 exported products, namely petroleum gases, crude oil, refined petroleum oils, nitrogenous fertilizers, and ammonia, collectively represent 91.5% of Algeria’s total exports, showcasing a concentrated export portfolio.
Trade Surpluses and Deficits: Algeria achieved a substantial trade surplus, reaching $32 billion in 2023, marking a significant increase from the previous year. Mineral fuels, including oil, dominated the positive net exports. Conversely, Algeria faces trade deficits in categories such as cereals, machinery, and dairy products.
Prominent Export Companies: Notably, no Algerian corporation ranks among the Forbes Global 2000. Key export-related companies include Asmidal (chemicals), Cevital (food, glass, home appliances), Hamoud Boualem (soft drinks), Naftal (oil equipment, services), Saidal (pharmaceuticals), and Sonatrach (oil, gas).
Economic Indicators: In macroeconomic terms, Algeria’s total exported goods contribute to 11.1% of its GDP for 2023, valued at $582.8 billion in Purchasing Power Parity US dollars. This suggests an increasing reliance on international markets for the country’s economic performance. The unemployment rate averaged 11.55% in 2023, reflecting a slight improvement from the previous year.
Algeria’s Economic Outlook Forecast – 2025
Introduction: Building on the positive economic trajectory observed in 2023, Algeria is poised for further growth and development. This forecast anticipates a 20% increase in the total value of exported products in 2025, projecting a continued upward trend in the nation’s economic performance.
Projected Export Growth: The anticipated 20% surge in Algeria’s exports for 2025 is expected to propel the total value to a new height. This optimistic forecast is based on the country’s recent export trends, the resilience of key industries, and an evolving global economic landscape.
Factors Driving the Forecast: Several factors contribute to this positive outlook:
- Global Demand: Continued strong demand for Algeria’s key export products, especially in the energy sector, is expected to drive export growth.
- Economic Reforms: Ongoing economic reforms and government initiatives to enhance the business environment may foster increased export activities and attract foreign investments.
- Diversification Efforts: Initiatives to diversify export products and markets could contribute to a more resilient and sustainable export portfolio.
- Stabilization of Currency: Efforts to stabilize the Algerian dinar may instill confidence in international trade partners and contribute to export growth.
Challenges to Consider: While the forecast is optimistic, it’s essential to acknowledge potential challenges:
- Global Economic Conditions: External factors such as global economic uncertainties or geopolitical events could impact Algeria’s export prospects.
- Commodity Price Volatility: Given the country’s reliance on energy exports, fluctuations in commodity prices may influence overall export revenues.
- Domestic Economic Stability: Addressing domestic economic challenges, including unemployment and inflation, will be crucial for sustained growth.
Algeria’s forecasted 20% increase in exports for 2025 signals a positive outlook for the nation’s economic landscape. Strategic planning, continued reforms, and proactive measures to address challenges will be instrumental in realizing and maximizing the forecasted growth. Monitoring global economic conditions and adapting to evolving market dynamics will be essential for a resilient and thriving Algerian economy in the years to come.
