Global Supermarket Industry Expansion Forecast to 2027

Overview of the Market Forecast

The global supermarket industry is set for substantial growth, with a projected increase from $1634.55 billion in 2023 to $1769.68 billion in 2024, reflecting a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3%. This upward trajectory is expected to continue, reaching an impressive $2405.78 billion by 2028, sustained by a consistent CAGR of 8.0%.

This growth is driven by several key factors:

  • Shifts in Consumer Behaviours: There is a marked change in how consumers shop, with a growing preference for convenience, private label products, and health-conscious choices.
  • Urbanisation Trends: Increasing urban populations are boosting demand for easily accessible supermarket services.
  • Rising Disposable Incomes: Greater spending power among consumers is leading to higher supermarket sales.
  • E-commerce Integration and Omnichannel Retailing: The seamless blend of online and offline shopping experiences is expanding market reach and customer engagement.
  • Health and Wellness Trends: A significant focus on healthy eating is influencing supermarket offerings.
  • Sustainability Initiatives: Supermarkets are increasingly adopting eco-friendly practices to meet consumer demand for sustainable products.
  • Technological Advancements: Innovations such as smart shelving, personalised marketing, and contactless payment systems are enhancing the shopping experience.

Key Market Segments and Technological Innovations

  • Healthy Eating Trends: Supermarkets are expanding their range of nutritious options, including fresh produce, organic items, and non-GMO products, catering to health-conscious consumers.
  • Consumer Electronics: Diversifying into electronics and appliances, supermarkets are tapping into new revenue streams, providing a more comprehensive retail experience.
  • Technology and Innovation: Embracing CRM technologies, AI-powered chatbots, and automated solutions to improve operational efficiency and customer satisfaction.
  • Strategic Acquisitions: High-profile acquisitions, such as Asda Stores Ltd.’s purchase of The Co-op’s outlets, are reshaping the competitive landscape and driving growth.

Regional Market Dynamics

  • North America: Leading the global market with strong performance driven by advanced retail infrastructure and high consumer spending.
  • Asia-Pacific: Rapidly growing due to urbanisation, increasing disposable incomes, and a burgeoning middle class.
  • Western and Eastern Europe: Stable growth supported by established retail chains and innovation in retail technologies.
  • South America, Middle East, and Africa: Emerging markets with significant growth potential driven by expanding retail networks and rising consumer demands.

North African and African Market Outlook

North African Countries:

North Africa, comprising countries such as Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, presents a promising market for supermarket expansion:

  • Economic Growth: Steady economic development and urbanisation are driving demand for modern retail formats.
  • Consumer Preferences: Increasing preference for organised retail over traditional markets.
  • Investment in Infrastructure: Government initiatives to improve retail infrastructure and logistics.
  • E-commerce Growth: Rising internet penetration and smartphone usage are fostering online grocery sales.

Sub-Saharan Africa:

The broader African continent is also poised for significant supermarket industry growth:

  • Demographic Trends: A young and growing population with rising middle-class consumers.
  • Urbanisation: Rapid urbanisation is leading to higher demand for organised retail.
  • Retail Network Expansion: Major supermarket chains are expanding their footprint across the continent.
  • Technological Adoption: Increasing adoption of mobile payments and digital retail solutions.
  • Local and Organic Produce: Growing demand for locally sourced and organic products.

Major Companies in the Global Supermarket Industry

The report highlights a selection of key players driving the supermarket industry’s growth:

  • Global Leaders: Tesco plc, Carrefour Group, The Kroger Company, ALDI Nord Group, Walmart Inc., and Costco Wholesale Corporation.
  • Regional Champions: Woolworths Group Limited, Asda Stores Ltd., and Real Canadian Superstore.
  • Emerging Players: ICA Supermarket, ParknShop Limited, and Publix Super Markets Inc.
  • Diversified Retailers: The Home Depot Inc., Lowe’s Companies Inc., Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., CVS Health Corporation.

The global supermarket industry is set for remarkable growth, driven by evolving consumer behaviours, technological advancements, and strategic expansions. North Africa and the broader African continent are emerging as key regions for market growth, with favourable economic conditions, increasing urbanisation, and rising disposable incomes paving the way for a thriving supermarket sector. By embracing innovation and sustainability, and expanding their product offerings, supermarkets are well-positioned to meet the dynamic needs of modern consumers and sustain long-term growth.

Report Compiled by: Riad Beladi and Lucien Denise


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