Kantar’s latest UK grocery market data, covering the 12 weeks to 15 June 2025, reveals significant shifts in the retail landscape, with Tesco’s growth accelerating and Asda’s market share falling below 12% for the first time in recorded history. The data provides a telling snapshot of changing consumer behaviours and retailer performances in a still-volatile economic climate.
Overall Market Trends
Total UK grocery sales grew by 5.0% in the 12-week period, a notable acceleration from the 4.2% growth recorded in the previous cycle. Meanwhile, grocery price inflation climbed to 4.7% in the latest four weeks, up from 4.1%, indicating a gradual return of upward pricing pressure. Despite inflationary conditions, grocery volumes only fell by 0.4%, considerably outperforming broader UK retail sales volumes, which dropped by 2.7% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics.
UK consumers are clearly adapting. An average of 17 supermarket visits per person was recorded in the latest month—the highest level since March 2020—though average spend per trip dropped slightly year-on-year by 3p to £23.89. Promotions are once again playing a vital role in shopping habits, with 28.8% of spend now on discounted items. Private label sales continue to outpace brands, growing at 4.2%.
Tesco: Rising Above the Market
Tesco’s performance continues to exceed expectations, with 12-week sales growth rising to 7.0%, up from 6.5% in the prior period—2.0% ahead of the market. The UK’s largest supermarket is pushing hard toward a 30% market share, deploying aggressive price-matching strategies and product development to get there. The Aldi Price Match initiative has now expanded to over 750 items, and its premium private label range, Tesco Finest, posted an impressive 18% increase in sales, nearing the £3bn annual turnover mark. These results align with Tesco’s Q1 trading update and demonstrate clear momentum.
Asda: Turbulence at the Top
In stark contrast, Asda’s market share has dipped to 11.9%, the first time it has fallen below the 12% threshold. The gap between Tesco and Asda now stands at a historic high of 16.2 percentage points. Moreover, Asda is only one percentage point ahead of Aldi, highlighting the growing threat from discounters.
Asda’s leadership turbulence continues to dominate headlines, with Darren Blackhurst returning as Chief Commercial Officer, replacing Kris Comerford. This change marks yet another senior leadership reshuffle, reflecting broader instability at the chain’s head office. Frequent buyer turnover over the past two to three years has complicated supplier relations and hindered product range consistency. Industry analysts note that stabilisation in leadership and commercial teams is critical if Asda hopes to reverse this decline.
Discounters Continue Climb
Aldi and Lidl now jointly hold 19% of the market. Lidl is the fastest-growing UK supermarket chain, recording its highest growth rate since February 2024. Lidl’s market share has risen to within 0.3 percentage points of Morrisons—a narrowing from a 1.0% gap at the same point last year. In an economy where value is king, discounters continue to expand their appeal.
Further pressure may be on the horizon for mid-market retailers. The latest Asda Income Tracker reports that the lowest-earning UK households now have less spending power than they did in 2021, before the cost-of-living crisis. This could signal even greater migration toward discount grocers in the coming months.
Other Notable Movements
While Kantar’s headline data excludes M&S, it did report that Marks & Spencer has maintained strong momentum despite recent operational challenges. The grocer posted sales growth of 12.0%, only marginally down from 12.3% in the previous period. This performance suggests M&S is recovering well from its recent cyber security breach.
On the other hand, Co-op appears to be more affected by its own cyber incident. Both sales and market share have declined compared to 2024 and 2023, raising concerns about the long-term impact on consumer trust and operational stability.
Kantar’s latest market data paints a picture of shifting consumer habits, strategic divergence, and growing competitive pressure. Tesco’s targeted growth strategy is clearly delivering results, while Asda’s challenges highlight the critical importance of stability and supplier alignment. As inflation and economic pressures persist, the discounters’ continued rise seems not only likely—but inevitable.