Algeria economy will keep growing outside hydrocarbon

By Riad Beladi Retail and economic analyst

After averaging 2.6% in the first half of 2022, GDP growth accelerated to 3.5% in the third quarter of 2022, according to recently released data. The expected acceleration was broad-based, driven by the agriculture, hydrocarbons, industry, and services sectors. Only the construction sector slowed down. Our experts expect economic growth to have accelerated further in Q4 2022. For Q1 2023, the available data are rather negative. Oil production stagnated in January and February compared to the previous month, which is a bad sign for the hydrocarbon sector. Inflation increased slightly in January compared to the fourth quarter, which is expected to affect private spending. In March, automaker Stellantis announced that it would build a $213 million plant and begin production before the end of the year. On a less positive note, operations at the plant of friendly automaker Renault have been suspended since mid-January due to supply bottlenecks.

Algeria inflation
Inflation was stable at 9.5% in January. A decline is expected in the further course of year 2

Algeria Inflation

Inflation was stable at 9.5% in January. It is seen declining later in 2023 due to such factors as a tougher base effect, government subsidies, cooling commodity prices and a strong wheat crop. Currency weakness and extreme weather events are upside risks.

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Algeria Economic Data

	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Population (million)	41.7	42.6	43.4	43.9	44.6
GDP (USD bn)	170	175	172	145	163
GDP per capita (USD)	4,079	4,107	3,954	3,307	3,659
GDP (DZD bn)	18,876	20,394	20,501	18,384	22,022
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)	7.8	8.0	0.5	-10.3	19.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)	1.3	1.2	1.0	-5.1	3.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %)	1.8	2.8	2.1	-3.0	3.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %)	2.8	2.3	1.9	-0.3	1.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)	3.4	2.5	-3.6	-5.2	5.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)	-6.1	-3.7	-6.1	-11.7	13.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)	-7.1	-3.8	-6.9	-15.9	-4.2
Industrial Production (ann. var. %)	1.1	-1.2	-1.1	-6.9	7.4
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)	10.3	10.4	10.5	12.2	11.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-8.4	-6.8	-9.6	-12.0	-7.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)	27.2	38.4	46.0	52.0	62.8
Money (ann. var. of M2 %)	7.4	11.1	-0.8	7.0	13.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)	5.9	3.5	2.4	2.1	6.6
Discount Rate (%, eop)	3.50	3.50	3.50	3.00	3.00
Exchange Rate (DZD per USD, eop)	114.8	118.3	119.1	132.1	138.8
Exchange Rate (DZD per USD, aop)	110.9	116.6	119.4	126.8	135.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-22	-17	-17	-19	-5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)	-13.0	-9.6	-9.9	-12.9	-2.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn)	-14	-7	-9	-14	1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn)	35	41	35	22	39
Merchandise Imports (USD bn)	49	49	45	36	37
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %)	18.0	18.9	-14.1	-37.9	75.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %)	-0.9	-0.9	-8.1	-20.4	5.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)	1	1	1	1	1
International Reserves (USD bn)	98	80	63	49	46
International Reserves (months of imports)	23.9	19.8	17.0	16.5	14.8
External Debt (USD bn)	6	6	5	5	7
External Debt (% of GDP)	3.4	3.3	3.2	3.6	4.5

Bt Riad Beladi

a solid background in retail and data analysis methods. a forecaster in economic growth, using retail data