The February 2026 retail figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) were largely in line with expectations, offering a modest but unsurprising improvement in sales volumes following a subdued start to the year.
Retail activity saw a slight month-on-month increase, supported by seasonal demand and targeted promotions across both food and non-food sectors. Clothing and household goods benefited from discounting strategies, while food retailers continued to see steady demand as consumers prioritised essential spending. However, the overall growth remains moderate and reflects a market that is stabilising rather than accelerating.
Industry analysts had anticipated this outcome. With inflationary pressures gradually easing and consumer confidence showing tentative signs of recovery, February’s figures align with forecasts of cautious spending behaviour. Households remain under financial pressure, and this continues to shape purchasing decisions, with a clear focus on value and necessity.
The data also confirms the ongoing shift in retail dynamics. While physical stores have seen a slight resurgence, online sales maintain a strong presence, highlighting the now-established hybrid shopping model. Consumers are increasingly combining convenience with price sensitivity, often researching online before making in-store purchases.
Despite the marginal improvement, structural challenges remain firmly in place. Retailers continue to face rising costs across supply chains, wages, and energy, limiting their ability to convert sales growth into meaningful profit gains. As a result, many businesses are maintaining cautious outlooks for the coming months.
In essence, February’s retail performance does not signal a breakthrough but rather reinforces the narrative of a slow and uneven recovery. The figures were expected, and they confirm that while the sector is no longer in decline, it has yet to regain strong momentum.
The coming months will be critical in determining whether this stability can evolve into sustained growth, or whether UK retail will remain constrained by cautious consumers and persistent economic headwinds.
Commenting on today’s ONS retail sales figures, Matt Dalton, Consumer Sector Leader at Forvis Mazars, said: “UK retail sales were weak in February, falling 0.4% month‑on‑month, as persistent bad weather stifled the momentum seen in January (revised up to 2% MoM). Although Valentine’s Day briefly boosted sales of items such as jewellery, watches and cosmetics, overall high‑street spending remained subdued. The data suggests that January’s brief rebound has been washed out by a cautious public facing a tougher economic backdrop.
“The outlook for the UK consumer is increasingly challenging as the economy absorbs a fresh energy price shock sparked by volatility in the Middle East. The UK entered this period in a vulnerable position, with inflation at 3%, elevated interest rates and growth already weak. As households are forced to put more of their income toward essential utility bills, spending on everything else is expected to slow down even further, heightening the risk of stagflation – the scenario where prices rise but the economy stays flat.”