The National Retail Federation (NRF) has projected that U.S. shoppers will spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion during the 2025 holiday season, marking the first time in history that holiday spending is expected to surpass the trillion-dollar milestone. Analysts say this reflects a combination of resilient consumer confidence, aggressive promotional campaigns, and the continued rise of digital commerce.
“Consumers are showing remarkable resilience despite economic headwinds,” said Matthew Shay, CEO of the NRF. “We anticipate robust traffic both online and in-store, with shoppers seeking value, convenience, and unique products.”
Retailers are gearing up for the surge. Walmart, Target, and Amazon have expanded their seasonal inventories, while regional chains are emphasising local sourcing and community engagement. Analysts note that discount promotions, loyalty programmes, and flexible delivery options will play a crucial role in driving sales.
However, industry experts warn that the figure does not reflect uniform spending. “While high-income households are expected to lead the surge, lower-income consumers may exercise caution due to inflationary pressures on food, energy, and essential goods,” said retail economist Jane Thompson.
E-commerce continues to take a growing share of holiday shopping, with online sales predicted to increase by 8–10% year-on-year. Shoppers are increasingly using apps to compare prices, check inventory, and schedule deliveries or pick-ups, signalling a permanent shift in shopping habits.
This milestone has broad implications for retailers, suppliers, and the logistics sector. Warehousing, last-mile delivery services, and seasonal employment will all face significant demand pressures. Retailers that can seamlessly integrate digital and physical channels are likely to emerge as the winners.
As the holiday season approaches, all eyes are on consumer behaviour, with the trillion-dollar threshold signalling not only optimism but also the increasing complexity of the American retail landscape.