The American consumer is showing signs of fatigue, and supermarkets are beginning to feel the pressure. U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the weakest monthly performance in more than a year, while retailers are reporting that shoppers are becoming increasingly selective about where and how they spend their money.
The grocery sector has not escaped this pressure. The problem is not simply that Americans have suddenly stopped buying food; people still have to eat. Instead, shoppers are changing what goes into the basket. McKinsey estimates that U.S. grocery sales grew in 2025, but largely because of higher prices: sales increased 1.2% while grocery volume actually declined 1%. In other words, Americans were spending more money but taking fewer products home.
That behaviour is becoming increasingly important for supermarkets. Consumers are looking harder at prices, switching retailers, buying fewer discretionary products and searching for promotions. Walmart, one of the best indicators of American consumer health, recently reported its slowest U.S. comparable-sales growth in six years, at 2.6% in its second quarter. The retailer has also seen market-share gains among households earning more than $100,000, suggesting that even relatively affluent shoppers are becoming more interested in value.
Food prices remain part of the problem. USDA data shows grocery prices were still 2.7% higher in June 2026 than a year earlier, with some categories rising considerably faster. Fresh vegetables were almost 10% more expensive year-on-year, while wholesale beef prices were up 12.7%.
This is creating a new supermarket consumer: the shopper who still visits the store but thinks twice before buying. Private label, discount retailers, promotions and smaller baskets are becoming increasingly important as households try to make limited budgets stretch further.
For supermarkets and food manufacturers, the warning is clear. American shoppers have not stopped spending — they are becoming much harder to persuade to spend.