A fresh wave of food inflation may be on the horizon, with industry experts warning that fruit and vegetable prices could rise by as much as 30% if tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate.
While the geopolitical focus remains on oil flows, the less visible but equally critical impact is being felt in the global fertiliser market. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for the movement of key agricultural inputs, and any prolonged disruption is already sending shockwaves through supply chains.
Fertiliser costs have begun to climb rapidly, with the risk that prices could double if the situation deteriorates further. For farmers, this represents a significant increase in production costs, forcing difficult decisions on how much fertiliser to use—decisions that directly affect crop yields and output levels.
The implications for the fresh produce sector are considerable. Reduced fertiliser usage typically leads to lower productivity, tightening supply at a time when demand remains steady. The result is almost inevitable: higher prices filtering through to wholesalers, retailers, and ultimately consumers.
Energy costs are adding further pressure. Fertiliser production is highly dependent on gas and oil, both of which are sensitive to instability in the Gulf region. As energy prices rise, the entire agricultural value chain—from planting and irrigation to transport and refrigeration—becomes more expensive.
Retailers across Europe are already bracing for impact. Procurement teams are monitoring input costs closely, aware that any sustained increase will need to be reflected in shelf prices. For consumers, this could mean a noticeable rise in the cost of everyday essentials such as fresh fruit and vegetables in the coming months.
What makes the current situation particularly concerning is its structural nature. Unlike short-term price spikes, disruptions to fertiliser supply have a delayed but lasting effect on agricultural output. The decisions farmers make today will shape availability and pricing well into the next growing seasons.
If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not stabilise, the global food sector could face a renewed period of inflation—this time driven not only by energy markets, but by a fundamental strain on agricultural production itself.